Time is now: recruitment into rebel organizations

Recent literature has pointed at the importance of (changes) in the economic environment for the understanding of conflict dynamics. Two channels, negative income shocks on the one hand and the presence of exportable commodities on the other hand are considered as drivers of conflict. This paper studies these two channels with a new fifteen-year panel of community level data on Burundi. We find that decreases in the producer price of coffee increases recruitment at the community level. The coffee economy thus affects conflict as a reservoir for potential recruits and not as an object of predation. We perform robustness tests with different specifications and with rainfall shocks as a mechanism affecting overall agricultural income, not just coffee. Results are confirmed. We also find evidence for the impact of past grievances, in particular indiscriminate violence on current recruitment.